Economic crisis in 2008?

First a note about "humbug theory" in previous post. I was wrong - everything is much stranger than I thought. I have no explanation for some phenomenas - except maybe expalnations based on Everett-Wheleer theory - but it is of course against Ockham razor.

About possible economic crisis in 2008

There are obvious sympthoms of unbalance of some economies - example USA, China, Russia.

A prosperity of last few years was a consequence of USA policy
1. Hughe government spendings (for the war in Iraqi) - expansive fiscal policy that affected USA, china and petroleum exporting countries
2. High supply of US dolars (see above) + low interest rates - expansive monetary policy that affected whole world (because dollar is an international currency).

This combined mix of policies very effectiwe fueled World economy but cannot be continued forever. So therefore there is a high probability od serious stock market fall in next year (2008) - similiar as in 1987 because of Reganomics.

Of cours there is a chance to avoid a serious crisis. Appropriate mix of macroeconomic "moves" can prevent the crisis. Esspecially changes of interest rates in Europe in USA (lowering and increasing the rates in right moments). But I am a pesimist because few economies are now addicted to the policy mix mentioned above, and without serius shock chances to changes are slight.